Draft Analysis - 2 for 2

How are we looking after Week 2? It may be time to wake up and smell the numbers. Let's look at winners and losers of the first two rounds over the first two weeks.



WINNER - The winner continues to be Ninja Meese with Tom Brady. Brady is averaging 31.5 points over two games and destroying the competition. Overall, it looks like owners who went early on elite Quarterbacks are winning out, as 3 of the top 5 scorers are Quarter Backs.

LOSER - Hard to blame anyone for injuries, but Peyton Manning, Arian Foster and now Jamaal Charles owners must be very disappointed. Even more frustrated must be Hopewell Hopesolos and Montreal Champiens whose 1st round Running Backs, Chris Johnson and Rashard Mendenhall, are averaging less than 8 ppg with no injury excuse. To be fair, at least Mendenhall appears to be on an upward swing after the Baltimore embarassment.


Stats to watch:
Let's continue our analysis on Running Backs and see how important it is to draft early. Here are Average ppg of Running Backs by Draft Round. (Sample size in parentheses)
Round 1 - 12.06 (8)
Round 2 - 13.33 (3)
Round 3 - 14.50 (4)
Round 4 - 8.00 (3)
Round 5 - 18.00 (1 - Jahvid Be[a]st)
Round 6 - 9.17 (3)
Round 7 - 3.17 (3)
Round 8 - 11.63 (4)
Round 9 - 8.38 (4)
Round 10 - 9.00 (1)
Round 11 - N/A (0)
Round 12 - 12.25 (2)
Round 13 - 7.30 (5)
Round 14 - 6.75 (2)
Round 15 - 5.75 (2)
Round 16 - 2.50 (2)
Round 17 - 0.50 (1)
Round 18 - N/A (0)
Round 19 - 3.50 (1)
Free Agent - 8.83 (3)

Round 1 is hardly the strongest, but remember it is hampered by injuries this year (Although reliability may be another knock on Running Backs). Rounds 1-3 do appear to be the strongest, but the real drop off does not come until late rounds, like around Round 13 or 14. It will be interesting to look at other positions and how they stack up, but that will probably have to wait until October when I'm back from the UK.

Enjoy, folks!

1 on 1's

We put so much stock into the draft system, draft order, and everything else, that I thought it would be interesting to see how Draft Picks pan out through the season. Obviously we cannot get an a accurate picture after only one week, but analysis should get more interesting as time goes on. This week we look at 1 on 1’s – First Round Picks’ Performance in Week 1.



Loser – Obviously the loser this week is Hoboken Newlyweds (me) , whose pick Arian Foster failed to contribute in Week 1 due to an injury. On notice is Jim Coe and Allan Wu, whose first and second picks overall failed to score 10 points, which you rely on your top picks to do.

Winner – This 1 on 1 trophy has to go to Jaime and Brian, as Tom Brady put up a whopping 35 points against the Dolphins and perhaps quieted doubts that he is worthy of a 1st Round Draft Pick.

Stats to Watch:

Draft Order – Everyone is very concerned about Draft Order and what pick they will be. Well, in Week 1 Picks 1-6 averaged 12.67 fantasy points, whereas Picks 7-12 averaged 21.17 fantasy points.

Running Backs vs Quarter Backs – It is generally accepted that top tier Running Backs should go first in the draft. However, looking at Week 1, Running Backs in the first round averaged just 11.75 fantasy points, whereas Quarterbacks selected in the first round averaged 27.25 fantasy points.
Both these stats are hampered by Arian Fosters injury, and to learn anything real we need more weeks of analysis and further draft rounds to compare, but it makes for an interesting jumping off point.